UK Fuel Prices Are Rising Fast — What the Iran Conflict Means for Drivers

What's Happening?

UK drivers are facing a sharp rise in fuel costs as the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets. Since the conflict began on 28 February, wholesale oil prices have surged — and those increases are now showing up at the pump.

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has jumped from around $73 to over $108 a barrel in just a few weeks. According to motoring organisation the RAC, average petrol prices have already risen by 9.8p to 142.62p per litre, while diesel has climbed 20.3p to 162.66p per litre.

And prices are likely to go higher.

How High Could Fuel Prices Go?

Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in the oil price pushes up pump prices by roughly 7p per litre. If oil remains around the $100 mark, the RAC predicts petrol could rise towards 150p per litre, while diesel could reach almost 180p.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams has warned that diesel "appears to be on a crash course to an average price of 170p".

For context, the last time fuel prices were this volatile was during the early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when petrol briefly exceeded 190p per litre.

Why Is It Hitting So Quickly?

There's normally a two-week lag between movements in the oil market and changes at the pump. However, some retailers have been accused of price gouging — raising prices faster than wholesale costs justify. The Chancellor has asked the markets regulator to investigate.

This is why comparing prices before filling up has never been more important. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive fuel in your area can easily be 15p or more per litre right now — that's over £8 difference on a single tank.

What About Energy Bills?

The immediate impact is focused on fuel, but there are wider knock-on effects to be aware of:

• Food prices could rise if higher diesel costs push up transport and logistics costs for businesses
• Energy bills are shielded by the price cap until July, but could be affected when the next cap is set
• Heating oil prices, used by many households in Northern Ireland and rural areas, have already risen sharply
• Mortgage rates could edge up if inflation concerns delay Bank of England interest rate cuts

How to Protect Yourself at the Pump

With prices moving quickly, the most effective thing you can do is compare prices before every fill-up. Here's how to keep costs down:

• Check FuelNearby before you fill up — prices can vary by 10–15p per litre between stations just a few miles apart
• Avoid motorway services — these are consistently 15–20p per litre more expensive than local alternatives
• Fill up at supermarkets — Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's, and Morrisons typically offer the lowest prices
• Don't panic buy — filling up when you need to, rather than topping up in a rush, lets you choose the cheapest station
• Consider your route — if you commute regularly, check which stations along your route offer the best prices
• Drive efficiently — smooth acceleration, steady speeds, and correct tyre pressure can improve fuel economy by 10–15%

Will Prices Come Back Down?

That depends entirely on how long the conflict lasts and how much it continues to disrupt oil production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil transit routes.

If the situation de-escalates, prices should gradually fall back. But if the conflict drags on, we could see sustained high prices through spring and into summer — traditionally a period when fuel demand (and prices) rise anyway.

The Bottom Line

Fuel prices are rising and may continue to climb in the coming weeks. The single best thing you can do is compare prices before every fill-up. Even small differences add up quickly — and right now, those differences are bigger than they've been in years.